2,520 active merchants. The portfolio is running ~30% below the TPV it was expected to produce — and the miss isn't evenly spread. Two patterns are structural: merchant size and maturity.
Deviation % = (Actual TPV to-date − Expected to-date) / Expected. Weighted = dollar-weighted across the book (the true economic read); the median merchant sits at −32%. Mean is only −16%, flattered by a long tail of big overperformers — so the weighted figure is the one to trust. Blended multi-country export (93% GB; figures in the file's mixed units).
Deviation worsens monotonically with expected size. The obvious objection — that big merchants are just newer and haven't ramped — doesn't hold: the gradient survives among mature merchants live 120+ days. This is an expectation-setting problem at the top of the book, not a ramp artifact.
Bar length ∝ |weighted deviation|. n = 1,894 / 402 / 145 / 78 merchants by bucket.
By absolute shortfall, the 500k–1M bucket is the single largest drag at −12.9M from just 145 merchants. The 500k–2M midmarket together is the core of the gap. Small merchants (<250k) miss too, but each miss is small. The leverage is in fixing how 500k+ deals are sized.
Across the UK book's first twelve months, every maturity band sits flat at −32% to −38%. There's no visible ramp recovery — merchants aren't closing the gap as they mature.
The flatness is the tell. If merchants genuinely ramped into plan over their first year, you'd see the later bands recover — they don't. That leaves two live explanations, both worth confirming: either Expected TPV to-date isn't being ramp-phased (so a young merchant is judged against a full run-rate it was never going to hit yet, making part of the deviation mechanical), or the expectation is set correctly and merchants simply aren't reaching it. The 365+ day cohort that would normally settle this question is excluded here — those are older non-UK signings and don't belong in a UK maturity read.
By install month, the recent waves are worst — Dec 2025 −50%, Jan 2026 −39% — and that's where almost all the volume sits, dragging the blended figure down.
West carries the largest expected book and one of the worst deviations. It alone is a quarter of the entire portfolio shortfall.
| Team | Merchants | Weighted dev | Shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| West | 486 | −47% | −11.9M |
| London 1 | 98 | −39% | −4.4M |
| East | 269 | −37% | −5.5M |
| North | 184 | −36% | −5.5M |
| London 2 | 122 | −27% | −5.8M |
| Telesales | 313 | −15% | −2.5M |
Telesales runs closest to plan because it writes small tickets (avg ~127k expected) that are easier to hit. West, London 1 and East all carry large average tickets — the same size signal as Section 01.
The spread between reps is large, and not random: reps who write the biggest average expected TPV per merchant tend to deviate most (correlation −0.22). Over-promising on size resurfaces as deviation.
| Rep | n | Dev | Avg exp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sameer Khan | 70 | −65% | 244k |
| Gagan Virdi | 57 | −59% | 262k |
| Krish Patel | 46 | −59% | 291k |
| Chaudhary Taha | 55 | −58% | 196k |
| Pranav Limbachiya | 69 | −42% | 370k |
| Richard Dajlanaj | 62 | −42% | 392k |
| Rep | n | Dev | Avg exp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dana Silver | 55 | −9% | 94k |
| Alessandro Righini | 69 | −9% | 179k |
| Ashmik Paul | 60 | −14% | 238k |
| Stina Seripova | 44 | −15% | 238k |
| Shabir Valis | 56 | −16% | 206k |
| Doruk Öncüloğlu | 27 | −16% | 838k |
Avg exp = average Expected Yearly TPV per merchant. Doruk is the instructive exception — large tickets, still close to plan — worth understanding what he sizes differently.
One lever above the rest: the expected-TPV sizing model for 500k+ merchants. It explains the size gradient, much of the rep dispersion, and the largest absolute shortfall. West's sizing in particular warrants a direct look.
1 · Confirm whether "Expected TPV to-date" is ramp-phased or a flat pro-rata of the annual number. If flat, the young-cohort miss is partly an artifact and the real problem narrows to the size gradient.
2 · Decide whether to strip the older non-UK signings out of the headline too — they're still sitting in the blended −30% and ~47.5M figures, so a UK-only read would shift those slightly worse.
Source: portfolio export, 2,520 active merchants with complete TPV and install data. Country mix GB 95% / IT 3% / DK 2% / DE <1%. IT (−9%) and DE (+8%) run ahead of plan on small samples; GB (−34%) and DK (−29%) drag.